When Dav and I were first married we’d often watch a video on a Saturday night. “Why don’t we stay in and watch a film tonight?” my lovely wife would say.
What she meant was, ‘Why don’t you drag yourself away from the fire, put your coat on, drive down to Blockbuster, rent a video – and a tub of ice-cream – and bring it home? And then tomorrow you can do exactly the same and take it back.’
…And as the rain lashed down I’d think, ‘There has to be a better way.’ And now there is. Amazon, Netflix, on demand… The idea of going out into the dark and the cold to rent a film is simply ludicrous. Dan and Rory fall about laughing.
Blockbuster? At its peak in 2004 it employed 84,000 people worldwide in more than 9,000 stores. It filed for bankruptcy in 2010 and its last stores were sold the following year.
Until recently, I felt much the same about takeaways. “Oh, I can’t be bothered to cook. Why don’t we have a Chinese or an Indian?” But it wasn’t a takeaway: it was a go-and-collect.
Then the takeaway shops started to deliver – and technology and big business eventually came together in a plethora of Just Eat signs. The company started in Denmark in 2000, is now headquartered in London and operates in 13 countries around the world. It’s just posted a 44% increase in revenue for the third quarter and is the most visible face of our love affair with takeaway food. There are now more than 56,000 takeaways in England, up by 4,000 over the last three years.
So let me pose a question: could Just Eat eat the restaurant industry?
Ever since this blog started in 2010 ‘nothing is impossible’ has been a constant theme running through it. ‘Don’t think it can’t happen because, today, it can.’
So could the restaurant industry – that basic staple of birthdays, anniversaries and targets achieved – be under threat? According to accountants Moore Stephens the answer is yes. They cite the rising cost of imported food because of Brexit and problems with increasing business rates – due to rise by 42% in some parts of London this year – and suggest that 20% of the UK’s restaurants could go out of business.
Factor in the rise and rise of the takeaway and the number could be even higher. ‘Go and collect it’ has become ‘tap the app and have it delivered.’ Eating out means getting changed, booking a table, going into town, one of you can’t drink because you have to drive… “Let’s just stay in, order a takeaway and watch a film” is quick, easy and convenient – and a lot less expensive.
But business rates and Brexit are one thing: a fundamental shift in consumer behaviour is quite another.
And right now the words ‘fundamental shift’ apply everywhere: ‘don’t think it can’t happen because it can’ probably ought to give way to ‘don’t think it can’t happen because it already has.’
Five years from now chatbots will be interacting with your customers, autonomous vehicles will be reducing the need to own a car and machines will be learning. As a recent article in Forbes put it, ‘Algorithms will be doing the heavy lifting.’
…And that’s before we consider voice control. With Alexa – or her second cousin – sitting in every home and on every desk, controlling everything in your home and office with voice commands will be second nature.
It’s easy to see the future glass as half-full. Amazon drones flying overhead delivering everything we need and Just Eat and Deliveroo drivers knocking on the door with all our meals. Throw in the ability to work from home and we may never need to leave the house again.
But you won’t be surprised to know that I see the glass as very much half-full. Yes, change is coming and it will impact areas of our lives and businesses we thought were set in stone. But change always brings opportunity – and who better to capitalise on it than the members of TAB UK?