‘May you live in interesting times.’
As we all know, what sounds like a blessing was originally a Chinese curse.
What we need right now – what our businesses emphatically need – are uninteresting times. Above all, predictable times, when we can sit down at the beginning of December and make our plans with a good idea of what the world will look like in 12 months’ time.
But we’re not going to get them.
2022 has certainly been ‘interesting.’ The Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked previously undreamt-of price rises for energy. We’ve had three Prime Ministers and four Chancellors. Inflation at record levels. And as I start writing this week Covid is spiking again in China: thousands are taking to the streets to protest at yet more lockdowns.
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
If ever a quotation summed up our challenging times it’s that one. But it’s not from a politician or a business guru, it’s from a mathematician. It comes from John Allen Paulos’ 2004 book, A Mathematician plays the Stock Market – and no, I didn’t have time to check whether Mr Paulos made more money from the book or from Wall Street.
But those two sentences speak exactly to what 2023 will bring us. We don’t know for sure – well, not until Old Ed’s Almanac comes out in a fortnight’s time. (My goodness, we set a worryingly high bar last year…)
Whatever happens, we’ll need to cope with it. We’ll need to continue running our businesses, employing people and dealing with whatever the world throws at us. And I guarantee that come December 2023 I’ll be looking back at an event none of us predicted…
I was reading Inc recently, and one article in particular struck a chord with me. I have mixed feelings on Airbnb: it’s a tremendous business model and it unquestionably meets a need. But there are plenty of people who’ll openly say it hasn’t been good for their city. Amsterdam is just one example.
But come March 2020 and lockdown, Airbnb barely had a business model. In just eight weeks, the company lost 80% of its business. “It was like a house, and it was burning,” CEO and co-founder Brian Chesky told Inc.
The pandemic happened roughly 12 years after Airbnb was founded. In the article, he describes it as ‘a stodgy company that had strayed from its vision.’
He re-structured the teams, changing them from divisional to teams based on function – in the same way Steve Jobs had re-structured Apple. The re-structure went hand-in-hand with simplifying the company: focusing on just two major events each year.
The latest innovation from Airbnb is, according to Chesky, one that makes it much simpler for new hosts to list a property. “We’re in a recession, or approaching a recession,” he says. “So I think that’s going to be an opportunity for people to start putting their homes on Airbnb.”
Well, the UK is already in recession. The Bank of England is cheerfully forecasting ‘the longest ever recession.’ As I write, food inflation has just hit its highest-ever level.
So am I suggesting that ‘our houses are burning?’ That we should spend the weekend working out how to re-structure our teams?
No, I’m not.
But I am saying that we can take a leaf out of Airbnb’s book. The coming year will be challenging: the UK economy will barely grow, there are certain to be continuing problems with inflation and the supply chain. And much as we might want certainty, it’s not going to be on the agenda next year.
If there’s one thing our businesses can’t be next year – to use Brian Chesky’s word – it’s ‘stodgy.’
We’ll need to adapt. We’ll need to be flexible. And we can’t be afraid to think the unthinkable – to re-invent our businesses if we need to.
Let me leave you this week with an inspirational story of re-invention: re-launching a whiskey brand nearly a century after it disappeared. Take five minutes and read Andy Reiger’s story. It’s what TAB is all about: vision, commitment, calculated risks, contributing to your local community and – ultimately – reaping the rewards.
And as he says in the final paragraph, ‘true authenticity and attention to detail’ – qualities well-known to all members of TAB UK – ‘will always get you to where you want to be.’
